Submitted

• Zhang, X., J. Rao, C.I. Garfinkel, S-W Son, B. He, Y Liu. How well do CMIP6 climate models simulate the cold air outbreaks in East Asia? Journal of Climate

• Garfinkel, C. I., D. Avisar, S. Osprey, D. Smith. The response of the QBO to external forcings: implications for disruption events, JGR: Atmospheres

• Feng, K., J. Rao, C.I. Garfinkel, A.H. Butler, W. Jie, T. Wu, P. Hitchcock, E-P. Lim, A. J. Dowdy, W. Seviour. Does stratospheric nudging improve surface predictability? Insights from the 2019 Southern Hemisphere sudden stratospheric warming, npj: Climate and Atmospheric Science

• Stan, C., S. Kollapaneni, A. M. Jenney, J. Wang, Z. Wu, C. Zheng, H. Kim, C.I. Garfinkel, and A. Singh. A Python diagnostics package for evaluation of MJO-Teleconnections in S2S forecast systems. Geoscientific Model Development

• Lu, Q., J. Rao, C. Shi, C.I. Garfinkel. Seasonality of the Quasi-biennial Oscillation signal in water vapor in the tropical stratosphere, ACP

• Ayarzaguena, B., A.H. Butler, P. Hitchcock, C.I. Garfinkel, Z.D. Lawrence, W. Ning, P. Rupp, Z. Wu, H. Afargan-Gerstman, N. Calvo, A. de la Camara et al, The role of the stratospheric state in upward wave flux prior to Sudden Stratospheric Warmings: a SNAPSI analysis. WCD.

• Bartana H., C.I. Garfinkel, C. Schwartz, O. Shamir, J. Rao, Influence of Subtropical Jets on the Equatorial Wave Spectrum: implications for future changes in Kelvin waves and MJO variance, Climate Dynamics.

Accepted/In Press/2025

• Dai, Y., P. Hitchcock, A. H. Butler, C. I. Garfinkel, W. Seviour, Assessing stratospheric contributions to subseasonal predictions of precipitation after the 2018 SSW from SNAPSI. WCD

• Ma, J., W. Chen, R. Yang, P. Hu, T. Ma, Z. Cai, C. I. Garfinkel, Enhanced relationship between stratospheric sudden warming and the Madden-Julian Oscillation in recent two decades, Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1029/2025GL117289

• Agel, L., J. Cohen, M. Barlow, K. Pfeiffer, J. Francis, C.I. Garfinkel, D. Entekhabi. Cold-Air Outbreaks in the Continental US: Connections to Stratospheric Variations, Science Advances.

• Keller, B., C. I. Garfinkel, E.P. Gerber, Disentangling Projected Stationary Wave Changes: Implications for Future Drying of the Mediterranean Region, J. Clim.

• Wang, J., D.I.V. Domeisen, C.I. Garfinkel , A. M. Jenney, H. Kim, Z. Wu, C. Zheng, and C. Stan. Prediction of MJO teleconnections in the UFS global fully coupled model. Climate Dynamics

• Zhang, X., J. Rao, C.I. Garfinkel, S-W Son, B. He, Y Liu. Identification and classification of cold air outbreaks in East Asia and possible stratospheric harbingers, JGR-Atmospheres

• Knobler, S., G. Rilov, C. I. Garfinkel, D. Liberzon, Climate Change Impacts in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea: Trends and Extremes . Water Waves, https://doi.org/10.1007/s42286-025-00118-5.

• Ju, Z., J. Rao, C. I. Garfinkel, Y. Liu, Y. Wang, Q. Lu. Remote Impact of the QBO-MJO on Early Summer Precipitation in Eastern Asia: Model Evidence from CMIP6, Climate Dynamics, 63, 110, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-025-07597-9.

• Rao, J., C.I. Garfinkel, X. Zhang, Q Lu. Subseasonal to seasonal (s2s) prediction of continental cold following the sudden stratospheric warming in the 2022/23 winter, Clim Dyn 63, 75, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-024-07582-8.

• Liu, S., T. Shaw, C. I. Garfinkel, Topography dominates the hemispheric asymmetry of Stratospheric Sudden Warmings, GRL, https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL113051

• Garfinkel, C. I., Z. D. Lawrence, A. H. Butler, E. Dunn-Sigouin, I. Erner, A. Y. Karpechko, G. Koren, M. Abalos, B. Ayarzaguena, D. Barriopedro, N. Calvo, A. de la Camara, A. Charlton-Perez, J. Cohen, D. I.V. Domeisen, J. Garcia-Serrano, N. P. Hindley, M. Jucker, H. Kim, R. W. Lee, S. H. Lee, M. Osman, F. M. Palmeiro, I. Polichtchouk, J. Rao, J. H. Richter, C. Schwartz, S.-W. Son, M. Taguchi, N. L. Tyrrell, C. J. Wright, and R.W.-Y. Wu: A process-based evaluation of biases in extratropical stratosphere-troposphere coupling in subseasonal forecast systems. https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1762

• Garfinkel C.I., Z. Wu, P. Yadav, Z. Lawrence, D.I.V. Domeisen, C. Zheng, J. Wang, A. M. Jenney, H. Kim, C. Schwartz, and C. Stan. The impact of vertical model levels on the prediction of MJO teleconnections. Part 2: The stratospheric pathway in the UFS global coupled model, Climate Dynamics, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-024-07512-8.

2024

• Rao, J., C.I. Garfinkel, A. H. Butler. Chapter 14 - Stratospheric polar vortex variability, Atmospheric Oscillations, Pages 277-299, https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-443-15638-0.00014-9.

• Ma, T., W. Chen, Q. Cai, Z. Dong, L. Wang, P. Hu, L. Gao, and C.I. Garfinkel, Attribution analysis of the persistent and extreme drought in southwest China during 2022-2023, ERL, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad8171.

• Shaw, T., J. Arblaster, T. Birner, A. Butler, D. Domeisen, C.I. Garfinkel, H. Garny, K. Grise, A Karpechko. Emerging climate change signals in atmospheric circulation, AGU Advances, https://doi.org/10.1029/2024AV001297. EOS Spotlight

• Nebel, D., C.I. Garfinkel, J. Cohen, D.I.V. Domeisen, J. Rao, C. Schwartz, The predictability of the downward vs. non-downward propagation of sudden stratospheric warmings in S2S hindcasts, GRL, https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL110529.

• Garfinkel C.I., J. Knight, M. Taguchi, C. Schwartz, J. Cohen, W Chen, A.H. Butler, D.I.V. Domeisen, Development of the signal-to-noise paradox in subseasonal forecasting models: When? Where? Why?, QJRMS, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4822.

• Deleon Y., C.I. Garfinkel, and N. Paldor, The effect of vertical temperature gradients on the equivalent depth in thin atmospheric layers, Atmospheric Sciences Letters, https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.1259.

• Zheng C., D.I.V. Domeisen, C. I. Garfinkel, A. M. Jenney, H. Kim, J. Wang, Z. Wu, and C. Stan. The impact of vertical model levels on the prediction of MJO teleconnections. Part I: The tropospheric pathways in the UFS global coupled model, Climate Dynamics, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-024-07377-x

• Garfinkel C.I., D. Rostkier-Edelstein, E. Morin, A. Hochman, C. Schwartz, R. Nirel, Precursors of summer heatwaves in the Eastern Mediterranean, QJRMS, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4795.

• Lembo, V., Bordoni, S., Bevacqua, E., Domeisen, D. I. V., Franzke, C. L. E., Galfi, V. M., Garfinkel, C., Grams, C. I., Hochman, A., Jha, R., Kornhuber, K., Kwasniok, F., Lucarini, V., Messori, G., Pappert, D., Perez-Fernandez, I., Riboldi, J., Russo, E., Shaw, T. A., Strigunova, I., Strnad, F., Yiou, P., and Zagar, N. Dynamics, statistics and predictability of Rossby waves, heatwaves and spatially compounded extreme events, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-24-0145.1.

• Shaw, T., P. A. Arias, M. Collins, D. Coumou, A. Diedhiou, C.I. Garfinkel, S. Jain, R. M. Koll, M. Kretschmer, L. R. Leung, S. Narsey, O. Martius, R. Seager, T.G. Shepherd, A. A. Sorensson, T Stephenson, M Taylor, L. Wang. Regional Climate Change: consensus, discrepancies, and ways forward, Frontiers in Climate, https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2024.1391634

• Hwang, J., S-W. Son, C.I. Garfinkel, T. Woollings, H. Yoon, S-I An, S-W Yeh, S-K Min, J-S Kug, and J Shin, Asymmetric hysteresis response of midlatitude storm tracks to CO2 removal, Nature Climate Change, https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-024-01971-x.

• Garfinkel C.I., B. Keller, O. Lachmy, I. P. White, E. P. Gerber, M. Jucker, and O. Adam. Impact of parameterized convection on the storm track and near-surface jet response to global warming: implications for mechanisms of the future poleward shift, J Clim, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0105.1. News article (in Hebrew)

• Weisheimer, W., L. H. Baker, J. Brocker, C.I. Garfinkel, S.C. Hardiman, D.L.R. Hodson, T. N. Palmer, J. I. Robson, A. A. Scaife, J. A. Screen, T. G. Shepherd, D. M. Smith, and , and Rowan T. Sutton. The Signal-to-Noise Paradox in Climate Forecasts: Revisiting our Understanding and Identifying Future Priorities, BAMS, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-24-0019.1.

• Yadav P., D. I. V. Domeisen, and C. I. Garfinkel, The role of the stratosphere in teleconnections arising from fast and slow MJO episodes , GRL, https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL104826.

2023

• Aru, H., W. Chen, S. Chen, C.I. Garfinkel, T. Ma, Z. Dong, and P. Hu, Variation in the Impact of ENSO on the Western Pacific Pattern influenced by ENSO Amplitude in CMIP6 simulations , JGR, https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2022JD037905.

• Adam, O., M Shourky, C. I. Garfinkel, M. P. Byrne. Increased uncertainty in projections of precipitation and evaporation due to wet-get-wetter/dry-get-drier biases , GRL, https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL106365.

• Butler, A.H., A. Y. Karpechko, C. I. Garfinkel, Amplified decadal variability of extratropical surface temperatures by stratosphere-troposphere coupling, GRL, https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL104607.

• Ma, T., W. Chen, X. An, C.I. Garfinkel, and Q. Cai, Nonlinear effects of the stratospheric Quasi-Biennial Oscillation and ENSO on the North Atlantic winter atmospheric circulation, JGR, https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2023JD039537

• Rao, J., C. I. Garfinkel, R. Ren, T. Wu, Y. Lu, M. Chu, Projected Strengthening Impact of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation on the Southern Hemisphere by CMIP5/6 Models, J Clim, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0801.1.

• Shamir, O., C.I. Garfinkel, E. Gerber, N. Paldor, The Matsuno-Gill model on the sphere, JFM, https://doi.org/10.1017/jfm.2023.369.

• Rao, J., C. I. Garfinkel, R. Ren, T. Wu, Y. Lu, Southern Hemisphere Response to the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation in the CMIP5/6 Models, J Clim, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0675.1.

• Rao, J., C. I. Garfinkel, T. Wu, J. Luo, Y. Lu, M. Chu, and Q. Lu, Combined Modes of the Northern Stratosphere, Tropical Oceans, and East Asian Spring Rainfall: A Novel Method to Improve Seasonal Forecasts of Precipitation, GRL, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL101360.

• Garfinkel C.I., I. P. White, E. P. Gerber, S-W Son, M. Jucker, Stationary waves weaken and delay the near-surface response to stratospheric ozone depletion, Journal of Climate, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0874.1.

• Rao, J., T. Wu, C. I. Garfinkel, J. Luo, Y. Lu, M. Chu, and J. Hu, Impact of the Initial Stratospheric Polar Vortex State on East Asian Spring Rainfall Prediction in Seasonal Forecast Models, Climate Dynamics, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-022-06551-3.

• Bartana H., C.I. Garfinkel, O. Shamir, J. Rao, Projected Future Changes in the Equatorial Wave Spectrum in CMIP6, Climate Dynamics, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-022-06510-y.

2022

• Chwat, D, C. I. Garfinkel, W. Chen, J. Rao, Which Stratospheric Sudden Warming Events are Most Predictable?, JGR, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JD037521.

• Ma, T., W. Chen, S. Chen, C. I. Garfinkel, S. Ding, L. Song, Z. Li, Y. Tang, J. Huangfu, H. Gong, W. Zhao, Different ENSO teleconnection over East Asia in early and late winter: role of precipitation anomalies in the tropical Indian Ocean-far western Pacific, Journal of Climate, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0805.1.

• Garfinkel C.I., W. Chen, Y. Li, C. Schwartz, P. Yadav, D. Domeisen, The winter North Pacific teleconnection in response to ENSO and the MJO in operational subseasonal forecasting models is too weak, Journal of Climate, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0179.1.

• Weinberger, I., C.I. Garfinkel, N. Harnik, N. Paldor, Transmission and reflection of upward propagating Rossby waves in the lowermost stratosphere: Importance of the Tropopause Inversion Layer , JAS, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-22-0025.1.

• Elbaum E., C.I. Garfinkel, O. Adam, E. Morin, D. Rostkier-Edelstein, U. Dayan, Uncertainty in projected changes in precipitation minus evaporation: dominant role of dynamic circulation changes and weak role for thermodynamic changes , GRL, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL097725.

• Hitchcock P, A. Butler, A. Charlton-Perez, C.I. Garfinkel, T. Stockdale, J. Anstey, D. Mitchell, D. I. V. Domeisen, T. Wu, Y. Lu, D. Mastrangelo, P. Malguzzi, H. Lin, R. Muncaster, B. Merryfield, M. Sigmond, B. Xiang, L. Jia, Y-K Hyun, J. Oh, D. Specq, I. R. Simpson, J. H. Richter, C. Barton, J. Knight, E-P Lim, and H. Hendon, Stratospheric Nudging And Predictable Surface Impacts (SNAPSI): A Protocol for Investigating the Role of the Stratospheric Polar Vortex in Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecasts , GMD, doi: 10.5194/gmd-2021-394.

• Ziskin S., C.I. Garfinkel, S. Davis, A. Banarjee, The roles of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation and El Nino for entry stratospheric water vapour in observations and coupled chemistry-ocean CCMI and CMIP6 models , ACP, 10.5194/acp-2021-972.

• Schwartz, C., Garfinkel C.I., P. Yadav, W. Chen, D. Domeisen, Stationary Waves and Upward Troposphere-Stratosphere Coupling in S2S Models , WCD, doi: 10.5194/wcd-2021-58.

• Lawrence Z.D., M. Abalos, B. Ayarzaguena, D. Barriopedro, A. H. Butler, N. Calvo, A. de la Camara, A. Charlton-Perez, D. I. V. Domeisen, E. Dunn-Sigouin, J. Garcia-Serrano, C. I. Garfinkel, N. P. Hindley, L. Jia, M. Jucker, A. Y. Karpechko, H. Kim, A. L. Lang, S. H. Lee, P. Lin, M. Osman, F. M. Palmeiro, J. Perlwitz, I. Polichtchouk, J. H. Richter, C. Schwartz, S-W Son, I. Erner, M. Taguchi, N. L. Tyrrell, C. J. Wright, and R. W.-Y. Wu, Quantifying stratospheric biases and identifying their potential sources in subseasonal forecast systems, WCD, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-977-2022

• Oh J., S-W Son, J. Choi, E-P. Lim, C I. Garfinkel, H. Hendon, Y. Kim, H-S. Kang, Impact of Stratospheric Ozone on the Subseasonal Prediction in the Southern Hemisphere Spring, Progress in Earth and Planetary Science, doi: 10.1186/s40645-022-00485-4.

• Cai Q., W. Chen, S. Chen, T. Ma, C I. Garfinkel, Influence of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation on the spatial structure of winter-time Arctic Oscillation, JGR, doi: 10.1029/2021JD035564.

• Deleon Y., C.I. Garfinkel, and N. Paldor, Equatorial waves on the beta-plane in the presence of a uniform zonal flow: Beyond the Doppler shift, Physics of Fluids, doi: 10.1063/5.0089877.

• Rao, J., C. I. Garfinkel, T. Wu, and Y. Lu, Mean State of the Northern Winter Stratospheric Polar Vortex in Three Generations of CMIP Models, J Clim, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0694.1.

• Stan, C., C. Zheng, E.K. Chang, D.I.V. Domeisen, C. I. Garfinkel, A.M. Jenney, H. Kim, Y-K. Lim, H. Li, A. Robertson, C. Schwartz, F. Vitart, J. Wang, P. Yadav, Advances in the prediction of MJO-Teleconnections in the S2S forecast systems, BAMS, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-21-0130.1.

• Yu Y., M. Cai, C. I. Garfinkel, Editorial: Stratosphere-Troposphere Coupling and its Role in Surface Weather Predictability, Frontiers in Earth Sciences, DOI: 10.3389/feart.2022.885934.

• Cohen J., L. Agel, M. Barlow, C.I. Garfinkel, I. White, Arctic change reduces risk of cold extremes-Response, Science 375, DOI: 10.1126/science.abn8954.

• Scaife, A. A., M. P. Baldwin, A. H. Butler, A. J. Charlton-Perez, D. I. V. Domeisen, C. I. Garfinkel, S. C. Hardiman, P. Haynes, A. Y. Karpechko, E.-P. Lim, S. Noguchi, J. Perlwitz, L. Polvani, J. H. Richter, J. Scinocca, M. Sigmond, T. G. Shepherd, S.-W. Son, and D. W. J. Thompson, Long Range Prediction and the Stratosphere , Atmos. Chem. Phys. doi:10.5194/acp-22-2601-2022.

• Garfinkel C.I., E. P. Gerber, O. Shamir, J. Rao, M. Jucker, I. P. White, N. Paldor, A QBO cookbook: Sensitivity of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation to resolution, resolved waves, and parameterized gravity waves, JAMES, doi: 10.1029/2021MS002568.

• White, I., C. I. Garfinkel, and P. Hitchcock, On the tropospheric response to transient stratospheric momentum torques, J Clim, doi: 10.1175/JAS-D-21-0237.1.

2021

• Armon, M., F. Marra, Y. Enzel, D. Rostkier-Edelstein, C.I. Garfinkel, O. Adam, U. Dayan, E. Morin, Reduced rainfall in future heavy precipitation events related to decreased rain area despite increased rain rate, Earth's Future, doi: 10.1029/2021EF002397.

• Rao, J., C. I. Garfinkel, Q. Lu, and Z. Liang, The January 2021 Sudden Stratospheric Warming and Its Prediction in Subseasonal to Seasonal Models, JGR, doi: 10.1029/2021JD035057

• Garfinkel C.I., I. P. White, E. P. Gerber, O. Adam, M. Jucker, Nonlinear Interaction between the Drivers of the Monsoon and Summertime Stationary Waves, GRL, doi: 10.1029/2020GL092321.

• Cohen J., L. Agel, M. Barlow, C.I. Garfinkel, I. White, Linking Arctic variability and change with extreme winter weather in the United States, Science 373, 1116, DOI: 10.1126/science.abi9167. cover story in Science, covered by the Guardian, Bloomberg BNN, Yahoo, and others

• Rao, J., C. I. Garfinkel, I.P. White, Development of the Extratropical Response to the Stratospheric Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, J Clim., doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0960.1.

• Weinberger, I., C.I. Garfinkel, I.P White, and T. Birner, The Efficiency of Upward Wave Propagation Near the Tropopause: importance of the form of the refractive index, JAS, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-20-0267.1.

• Deleon Y., I. Fouxon, C.I. Garfinkel, and N. Paldor, Planetary, Inertia-Gravity and Kelvin waves on the f/beta plane in the presence of a uniform zonal flow, QJRMS, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4107.

• Shamir, O., C. Schwartz, C.I. Garfinkel, and N. Paldor, The power distribution between symmetric and anti-symmetric components of the tropical wavenumber-frequency spectrum, JAS, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-20-0283.1 .

• Shamir, O., C.I. Garfinkel, O. Adam, and N. Paldor, A note on the power distribution between symmetric and anti-symmetric components of the tropical Brightness Temperature spectrum in the wavenumber-frequency plane , JAS,doi: 10.1175/JAS-D-21-0099.1.

• Rao, J. and C. I. Garfinkel, The Strong Stratospheric Polar Vortex in March 2020 in S2S Models: Implications for Empirical Prediction of the Low Arctic Total Ozone Extreme, JGR, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JD034190

• White, I., C. I. Garfinkel, J. Cohen, M. Jucker, and J. Rao, The impact of split and displacement sudden stratospheric warmings on the troposphere, JGR, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JD033989.

• Garfinkel, C.I., O. Shamir, I. Fouxon, and N. Paldor, Tropical background and wave spectra: contribution of wave-wave interactions in a moderately nonlinear turbulent flow, JAS, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-20-0284.1.

• Garfinkel, C.I., O. Harari, S. Ziskin, J. Rao, O. Morgenstern, G. Zeng, S. Tilmes, D. Kinnison,F. M. O'Connor, N. Butchart, M. Deushi, P. Jockel, A. Pozzer, and S. Davis, Influence of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation on entry stratospheric water vapor in coupled chemistry-ocean CCMI and CMIP6 models, ACP, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-3725-2021.

• Marra, F, M. Armon, O. Adam., D. Zoccatelli, O. Gazal, C. I. Garfinkel, D. Rostkier-Edelstein, U. Dayan, Y. Enzel, E. Morin, Toward Narrowing Uncertainty in Future Projections of Local Extreme Precipitation, GRL, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL091823.

• Rao, J. and C. I. Garfinkel, Projected Changes of Stratospheric Final Warmings in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres by CMIP5/6 Models, Climate Dynamics, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05647-6.

• Givon, Y., C.I. Garfinkel, and I.P. White, Transient extratropical response to solar ultraviolet radiation in the Northern Hemisphere Winter, Journal of Climate, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0655.1

• Rao, J. and C. I. Garfinkel, CMIP5/6 Models Project Little Change in the Statistical Characteristics of Sudden Stratospheric Warmings in the 21st Century, Environmental Research Letters, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abd4fe.

• Baldwin, M.P., B. Ayarzaguena, T. Birner, N. Butchart, A.J. Charlton-Perez, A.H. Butler, D.I. Domeisen, C.I. Garfinkel, H. Garny, E.P. Gerber, and M.I. Hegglin, Sudden Stratospheric Warmings, Review of Geophysics, 58, e2020RG000708, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020RG000708. Editor's Vox

2020

• Rao, J. and C. I. Garfinkel, Arctic Ozone Loss in March 2020 and Its Seasonal Prediction in CFSv2: A Comparative Study with the 1997 and 2011 Cases Journal of Geophysical Research, 125, e2020JD033524. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JD033524.

• Rao, J., C. I. Garfinkel, and I. P. White, Projected strengthening of the extratropical surface impacts of the stratospheric Quasi Biennial Oscillation, Geophysical Research Letters, 47, e2020GL089149. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL089149.

• Garfinkel C.I., I. P. White, E. P. Gerber, M. Jucker, The impact of SST biases in the tropical east Pacific and Agulhas current region on atmospheric stationary waves in the Southern Hemisphere, Journal of Climate, 33, 9351-9374, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0195.1.

• Rao, J., C. I. Garfinkel, I. P. White, C. Schwartz, How does the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation affect the boreal winter tropospheric circulation in CMIP5/6 models?, Journal of Climate, 33, 8975-8996, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0024.1.

• Rao, J., C. I. Garfinkel, I. P. White, C. Schwartz, The Southern Hemisphere Minor Sudden Stratospheric Warming in September 2019 and its predictions in S2S Models , Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 125, e2020JD032723, doi:10.1029/2020JD032723.

• Garfinkel, C. I., C. Schwartz, I.P. White, and J. Rao, Predictability of the early winter Arctic Oscillation from Autumn Eurasian snowcover in subseasonal forecast models , Climate Dynamics, 55, doi:10.1007/s00382-020-05305-3

• Schwartz C., C.I. Garfinkel, Troposphere-Stratosphere Coupling In S2S Models and Its Importance for a Realistic Extratropical Response to the Madden-Julian Oscillation , JGR: Atmospheres, 125, doi: 10.1029/2019JD032043

• Deleon Y., C.I. Garfinkel, and N. Paldor, Barotropic modes, baroclinic modes and equivalent depths in the atmosphere , QJRMS, 146, 2096-2115, doi: 10.1002/qj.3781

• Rao, J., C. I. Garfinkel, I. P. White, Impact of Quasi-Biennial Oscillation on the northern winter stratospheric polar vortex in CMIP5/6 models , Journal of Climate, 33, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0663.1.

• Paldor N., O. Shamir, and C.I. Garfinkel, Approximating the shallow water equations by the non-divergence and quasi-geostrophic systems: Application to barotropic instability of a zonal jet on the sphere , GAFD, DOI: 10.1080/03091929.2020.1724996.

• Rao, J., C. I. Garfinkel, and I. P. White, Predicting the downward and surface influence of the February 2018 and January 2019 sudden stratospheric warming events in subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) models, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 125, doi: 10.1029/2019JD031919

• White, I., C. I. Garfinkel, E. P. Gerber, M. Jucker, P. Hitchcock, and J. Rao, The generic nature of the tropospheric response to sudden stratospheric warmings , Journal of Climate, 33, 5589-5610, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0697.1.

• Garfinkel C.I., I. P. White, E. P. Gerber, M. Jucker, The building blocks of Northern Hemisphere wintertime stationary waves , Journal of Climate, 33, 5611-5633, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0181.1..

• Garfinkel C.I., O. Adam, E. Morin, Y. Enzel, E. Elbaum, M. Bartov, D. Rostkier-Edelstein, U. Dayan, The Role of Zonally Averaged Climate Change in Contributing to Intermodel Spread in CMIP5 Predicted Local Precipitation Changes. J. Climate, 33, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0232.1

• Domeisen, D. I. V., A. H. Butler, A. J. Charlton-Perez, B. Ayarzaguena, M. P. Baldwin, E. Dunn-Sigouin, J. C. Furtado, C. I. Garfinkel, P. Hitchcock, A. Y. Karpechko, H. Kim, J. Knight, A. L. Lang, E.-P. Lim, A. Marshall, G. Rolff, C. Schwartz, I. R. Simpson, S.-W. Son, and M. Taguchi, 2019: The role of the stratosphere in sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction. Part I: Predictability of the stratosphere, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 125, doi: 10.1029/2019JD030920.

• Domeisen, D. I. V., A. H. Butler, A. J. Charlton-Perez, B. Ayarzaguena, M. P. Baldwin, E. Dunn-Sigouin, J. C. Furtado, C. I. Garfinkel, P. Hitchcock, A. Y. Karpechko, H. Kim, J. Knight, A. L. Lang, E.-P. Lim, A. Marshall, G. Rolff, C. Schwartz, I. R. Simpson, S.-W. Son, and M. Taguchi: The role of the stratosphere in subseasonal to seasonal prediction: 2. Predictability arising from stratosphere-troposphere coupling, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 125, doi: 10.1029/2019JD030923.

2019

• Rao J., C.I. Garfinkel, and R. Ren, Modulation of the Northern Winter Stratospheric El Nino-Southern Oscillation Teleconnection by the PDO, Journal of Climate, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0087.1.

• Weinberger I., C.I. Garfinkel, I. P. White, L. Oman, The salience of nonlinearities in the boreal winter response to ENSO: Arctic stratosphere and Europe, Climate Dynamics, doi:10.1007/s00382-019-04805-1.

• Garfinkel, C.I., I. Weinberger, I. P. White, L. Oman, V. Aquila, Y-K Lim, The salience of nonlinearities in the boreal winter response to ENSO: North Pacific and North America , Climate Dynamics, doi: 10.1007/s00382-018-4386-x.

• Garfinkel C.I., C. Schwartz, D. I. P. Domeisen, S-W Son, A. H. Butler, I. P. White, Weakening of the teleconnection of El Nino-Southern Oscillation to the Arctic stratosphere over the past few decades: What can be learned from subseasonal forecast models?, JGR, doi: 10.1029/2018JD029961.

• Harari, O., C.I. Garfinkel, O. Morgenstern, G. Zeng, S. Tilmes, D. Kinnison, M. Deushi, P. Jockel, A. Pozzer, and F. M. O'Connor, Influence of Arctic Stratospheric Ozone on Surface Climate in CCMI models, ACP, doi: 10.5194/acp-2018-1031.

• Rao, J., C. I. Garfinkel, H. Chen, and I.P. White, The 2019 New Year Stratospheric Sudden Warming and Its Real-Time Predictions in Multiple S2S Models. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 124. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JD030826

• White I. P., C.I. Garfinkel, E.P. Gerber, M. Jucker, L.D. Oman, and V. Aquila, The Downward Influence of Sudden Stratospheric Warmings: Association with Tropospheric Precursors , J. Climate, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0053.1.

• Domeisen, D.I.V., C.I. Garfinkel, A. H. Butler, The Teleconnection of El Nino Southern Oscillation to the Stratosphere , Review of Geophysics, doi: 10.1029/2018RG000596. Editor's Vox

• Karpechko, A. and A. Maycock (Lead Authors), A. Hideharu, M. Abalos, C.I. Garfinkel, K.H. Rosenlof, J. Arblaster, M. Sigmond, Stratospheric ozone changes and climate, Chapter 5 in Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion: 2018, Global Ozone Research and Monitoring Project-Report No. 58, World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, Switzerland, 2018

• Garfinkel C.I., C. Schwartz, D. I. P. Domeisen, S-W Son, A. H. Butler, I. P. White, Extratropical stratospheric predictability from the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation in subseasonal forecast models , JGR, doi: 10.1029/2018JD028724.

• Son. S-W, B-R. Han, C.I. Garfinkel, and 26 others, Tropospheric jet response to Antarctic ozone depletion: An update with Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) models , Environmental Research Letters, doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/aabf21.

• Paldor N., I. Fouxon, O. Shamir, and C.I. Garfinkel, The Mixed Rossby-Gravity Wave on the Spherical Earth , QJRMS, doi: 10.1002/qj.3354.

• Garfinkel, C.I. and L. Oman. Effect of gravity waves from small islands in the Southern Ocean on the Southern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation , JGR, doi: 10.1002/2017JD027576.

• Garfinkel, C.I., A. Gordon, L. Oman, F. Li, S. Davis, and S. Pawson, Nonlinear response of tropical lower stratospheric temperature and water vapor to ENSO , ACP, doi: 10.5194/acp-2017-520.

• Butler, A., A. Charlton-Perez, D. I. V. Domeisen, C.I. Garfinkel, P. Hitchcock, A. Karpechko, A. C. Maycock, M. Sigmond, I. Simpson, S.-W. Son. "Sub-seasonal predictability and the Stratosphere" chapter in S2S: Sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction.

2017

• Garfinkel, C.I. and C. Schwartz, MJO-related tropical convection anomalies lead to more accurate stratospheric vortex variability in subseasonal forecast models, GRL, doi:10.1002/2017GL074470.

• Schwartz, C. and C.I. Garfinkel. Relative Roles of the MJO and Stratospheric Variability in North Atlantic and European Winter Climate . J. Geoph. Res, doi: 10.1002/2016JD025829.

• Williams, P., M.J. Alexander, E.A. Barnes, A.H. Butler, H.C. Davies, C.I. Garfinkel, Y. Kushnir, T.P. Lane, J.K. Lundquist, O. Martius, R.N. Maue, W.R. Peltier, K. Sato, A.A. Scaife, C. Zhang. A census of atmospheric variability from seconds to decades . Geophysical Research Letters, doi: 10.1002/2017GL075483.

• Calvo, N., M. Iza, M.M. Hurwitz, E. Manzini, C. Pena-Ortiz, A.H. Butler, C. Cagnazzo, S. Ineson, and C.I. Garfinkel. Northern Hemisphere Stratospheric Pathway of different El Nino flavors in stratosphere-resolving CMIP5 models . J. Clim, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0132.1.

• Garfinkel, C.I., I. Fouxon, O. Shamir, and N. Paldor. Classification of Eastward Propagating Waves on the Spherical Earth, QJRMS, 10.1002/qj.3025

• Seviour, W.J. M., D. W. Waugh, L. M. Polvani, G. J. P. Correa, and C.I. Garfinkel. Robustness of the simulated tropospheric response to ozone depletion , J. Clim, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0817.1.

• Garfinkel, C.I., S.-W Son, K. Song, V. Aquila, and L. D. Oman Stratospheric variability contributed to and sustained the recent hiatus in Eurasian winter warming , doi: 10.1002/2016GL072035, GRL.

• Garfinkel, C.I., V. Aquila, D. W. Waugh, and L. D. Oman Time varying changes in the simulated structure of the Brewer Dobson Circulation, doi:10.5194/acp-17-1313-2017, ACP.

• Garfinkel, C.I. Might stratospheric variability lead to improved predictability of ENSO events? , Environmental Research Letters, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aa60a4.

• Garfinkel, C.I. and N. Harnik, The non-Gaussianity and spatial asymmetry of temperature extremes relative to the jet: the role of horizontal advection, J Clim, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0806.1.

2016

• Shaw, T. A., M. Baldwin, E. A. Barnes, R. Caballero, C. I. Garfinkel, Y-T. Hwang, C. Li, P. A. O'Gorman, G. Riviere, I R. Simpson, and A. Voigt, 2016: Understanding storm tracks and their response to climate change , Nature Geosc, 9, 656-664, doi:10.1038/ngeo2783.

• Harnik N., C.I. Garfinkel, and O. Lachmy, The Influence of Jet Regimes on Extreme Weather events, In 'Dynamics and Predictability of Large-Scale, High-Impact Weather and Climate Events'. Ed. Li, J., R. Swinbank, H. Volkert and R. Grotjahn. Cambridge University Press.

2015

• Garfinkel, C.I., Waugh D. W., and L. M. Polvani (2015), Recent Hadley cell expansion: the role of internal atmospheric variability in reconciling modeled and observed trend, Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, doi:10.1002/2015GL066942.

• Garfinkel, C.I., V. Silverman, N. Harnik, C. Erlich, Y. Riz (2015), Stratospheric Response to Intraseasonal Changes in Incoming Solar Radiation, J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 120, 7648-7660. doi: 10.1002/2015JD023244.

• Garfinkel, C. I. M. M. Hurwitz, and L. D. Oman (2015), Effect of Recent Sea Surface Temperature Trends on the Arctic Stratospheric Vortex, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 120, 5404-5416, doi:10.1002/2015JD023284.

• Waugh D. W., C.I. Garfinkel, and L. M. Polvani (2015), Drivers of the recent tropical expansion in the Southern Hemisphere: Changing SSTs or ozone depletion?, Journal of Climate, 28, 6581-6586, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0138.1.

2014

• Garfinkel, C. I., J. J. Benedict, and E. D. Maloney (2014), Impact of the MJO on the Boreal Winter Extratropical Circulation , Geophys. Res. Let., 41, 6055-6062, doi:10.1002/2014GL061094.

• Garfinkel, C. I. and D. W. Waugh (2014), Tropospheric Rossby Wave Breaking and Variability of the Latitude of the Eddy-driven Jets, J. Climate, 27, 7069-7085, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00081.1.

• Hurwitz, M.M., N. Calvo, C.I. Garfinkel, A.H. Butler, S. Ineson, C. Cagnazzo, E. Manzini, and C. Pena-Ortiz (2014). Extra-tropical atmospheric response to ENSO in the CMIP5 models^^, Clim. Dyn., DOI: 10.1007/s00382-014-2110-z.

• Aquila V., C. I. Garfinkel, P. A. Newman, L. D. Oman, D. W. Waugh (2014), Modifications of the quasi-biennial oscillation by a geoengineering perturbation of the stratospheric aerosol layer. Geophys. Res. Let. 41(5), 1738--1744, DOI: 10.1002/2013GL058818.

2013

• Hurwitz, M.M., C.I. Garfinkel, P.A. Newman, and L.D. Oman), Sensitivity of the atmospheric response to Warm Pool El Nino events to modeled SSTs and future climate forcings. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres. 118(24), 13,371--13,382, DOI: 10.1002/2013JD021051.

• Garfinkel, C. I., M. M. Hurwitz, L. D. Oman, D. W. Waugh, Contrasting Effects of Central Pacific and Eastern Pacific El Nino on Stratospheric Water Vapor, GRL, 40, 4115--4120, doi: 10.1002/grl.50677

• Garfinkel, C.I., D. W. Waugh, L.D. Oman, L. Wang, and M.M. Hurwitz. Temperature trends in the tropical upper troposphere and lower stratosphere: connections with sea surface temperatures and implications for water vapor and ozone, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 118(17), 9658-9672, doi: 10.1002/jgrd.50772. Highlighted in this News and Views in Nature Climate Change

• Garfinkel, C. I., L. D. Oman, E. A. Barnes, D. W. Waugh, M. M. Hurwitz, A. M. Molod, Connections between the Spring Breakup of the Southern Hemisphere Polar Vortex, Stationary Waves, and Air-Sea Roughness, J. Atmos. Sci., 70, 2137--2151. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-12-0242.1.

• Garfinkel, C. I., D. W. Waugh, E. P. Gerber, The Effect of Tropospheric Jet Latitude on Coupling between the Stratospheric Polar Vortex and the Troposphere, J. Clim., 26, 2077-2095, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00301.1.

• Garfinkel, C. I., M. M. Hurwitz, D. W. Waugh, A.H. Butler, Are the Teleconnections of Central Pacific and Eastern Pacific El Nino Distinct in Boreal Wintertime?^, Climate Dynamics, doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1570-2.

2012

• Hurwitz, M.M., P.A. Newman, and C.I. Garfinkel, On the Influence of North Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures on the Arctic Winter Climate, J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 117, D19110, doi:10.1029/2012JD017819.

• Garfinkel, C. I., A.H. Butler, D. W. Waugh, M. M. Hurwitz, L. M. Polvani, Why might stratospheric sudden warmings occur with similar frequency in El Nino and La Nina winters?, J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 117, D19106, doi:10.1029/2012JD017777.

• Garfinkel C. I., S. B. Feldstein, D. W. Waugh, C. Yoo, S. Lee, Observed Connection between Stratospheric Sudden Warmings and the Madden-Julian Oscillation, GRL, 39, http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2012GL053144.

• Barnes, E. A. and Garfinkel, C. I., Barotropic impacts of surface friction on eddy kinetic energy and momentum fluxes: an alternative to the barotropic governor, JAS, 69, doi: 10.1175/JAS-D-11-0243.1.

• Garfinkel, C.I., T.A. Shaw, D.L. Hartmann, and D.W. Waugh, Does the Holton-Tan Mechanism Explain How the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation Modulates the Arctic Polar Vortex?, J. Atmos. Sci., 69, doi:10.1175/JAS-D-11-0209.1.

2011

• Hurwitz, M. M., Newman, P. A., and Garfinkel, C. I., The Arctic vortex in March 2011: a dynamical perspective, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 11, 11447-11453, doi:10.5194/acp-11-11447-2011.

• Garfinkel, C.I., A. M. Molod , L.D. Oman , I-S. Song, Improvement of the GEOS-5 AGCM upon updating the Air-Sea Roughness Parameterization, GRL, 38, L18702, doi:10.1029/2011GL048802.

• Garfinkel, C.I. and D.L. Hartmann, The Influence of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation on the Troposphere in Wintertime in a Hierarchy of Models, Part 2-Perpetual Winter WACCM runs, J. Atmos. Sci., 68, doi: 10.1175/2011JAS3702.1.

• Garfinkel, Chaim I., D. L. Hartmann, The Influence of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation on the Troposphere in Winter in a Hierarchy of Models. Part I: Simplified Dry GCMs. J. Atmos. Sci., 68, 1273--1289, doi: 10.1175/2011JAS3665.1.

2010

• Garfinkel, C.I. and D.L. Hartmann, The Influence of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation on the North Pacific and El-Nino teleconnections, J. Geophys. Res. Atmos , 115, D20116,doi:10.1029/2010JD014181.

• Garfinkel, C.I., D.L. Hartmann, and F. Sassi, Tropospheric Precursors of Anomalous Northern Hemisphere Stratospheric Polar Vortices, J. Clim., 23, doi: 10.1175/2010JCLI3010.1.

pre-2010

• Garfinkel, C.I., and D.L. Hartmann (2008), Different ENSO Teleconnections and Their Effects on the Stratospheric Polar Vortex, J. Geophys. Res. Atmos, 113, D18114, doi:10.1029/2008JD009920.

• Garfinkel, C.I., and D.L. Hartmann (2007), Effects of the El-Nino Southern Oscillation and the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation on polar temperatures in the stratosphere, J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 112, D19112, doi:10.1029/2007JD008481.

Other Items

• My Ph.D. dissertation: Stratosphere-Troposphere Coupled Variability in the Wintertime Northern Hemisphere.

• SPARC newsletter number 43 - July 2014, Report on the 5th SPARC General Assembly, 12-17 January 2014, Queenstown, New Zealand

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  ^^The final publication is available at http://www.springer.com/. This download is courtesy of Springer, who owns sole rights to it. The download is subject to copyright laws and statutes.